Best Basketball Betting Strategies for NBA bets

NBA and NCAA Basketball betting has become increasingly popular in recent years, with more and more people enjoying the thrill of gambling on their favorite sports, particularly the NBA. The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the most popular basketball league in the world, and it’s no surprise that it draws much attention from sports bettors.

One of the reasons why NBA betting is so popular is the sheer number of markets available. There are countless ways to wager on an NBA game, from money lines and point spreads to live betting and prop bets. And with the rise of online betting sites, it’s easier than ever to place a bet and potentially win big.

If you want to improve your NBA betting strategy and increase your chances of winning, this article is for you. In this guide, we’ll cover the best NBA betting strategies, including sports betting tips and expert advice on how to bet on NBA games.

We’ll discuss everything from the basics of NBA betting and how to read betting odds to more advanced strategies like betting against the point spread and using betting systems to your advantage. Whether a seasoned pro or a beginner, these NBA betting strategies will help you make the most of your wagers and earn serious money. So, let’s get started!

Top basketball betting sites

Basketball betting basics – What every NBA bettor has to know

If you’re new to NBA betting or just looking to brush up on the basics, it’s necessary to understand the fundamentals of basketball betting. Knowing how to read odds, how to place a bet, and what types of bets are available are all essential to maximizing your chances of winning and earning some money. In this section, we’ll cover everything you need to know to get started with NBA betting, including expert tips and strategies for betting on games.

Manage your bankroll carefully

To successfully manage your NBA betting bankroll, set a budget and allocate it selectively. For example, you can reserve a percentage of your bankroll for straight bets like point spreads and moneylines and another portion for totals and props. This way, you can maximize betting opportunities without overspending in one area.

Only bet what you can afford to lose, and determine your optimal bet size based on your bankroll and confidence in a particular bet. Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, trends, and data, and be willing to adjust your strategy if you are still looking for consistent success.

Only bet at trustworthy sportsbooks

In sports betting, finding a trustworthy sportsbook is crucial to ensuring your success as a bettor. When it comes to basketball and the NBA, there are several indicators to look for when assessing the reliability of a sportsbook. Firstly, pay attention to the reputation of the sportsbook within the industry, as well as their licensing and regulation, history of payouts, and customer service. Additionally, a trustworthy sportsbook will offer a variety of bets and markets, fair and competitive odds and lines, and provide ample information for bettors to make informed decisions. That information may include injury reports, statistics, and expert analysis of teams, players, and matchups. They should also have clear rules and limits for betting and accessible customer support to address any questions or concerns.

DraftKings sign up

Bet $5 and win $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins!

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

On the other hand, an untrustworthy sportsbook may have limited betting options, poor odds, and a lack of transparency in its rules and customer support. They may also offer bonuses or promotions that seem too good to be true or have a history of not paying out winnings to customers. In short, it’s essential to take the time to do your research and assess the reliability of a sportsbook before placing any bets. Your research can help you avoid scams and ensure you can maximize your sports betting opportunities, ultimately increasing your chances of success.

Keep tabs on the NBA schedule

Keeping track of the NBA schedule is crucial for sports bettors trying to make smart wagers. Bettors can use online resources such as official websites created by organizations like the NBA or sports news websites covering the league. These resources provide schedules, game times, and other important information, such as player injuries and recent team performance.

Another effective way to stay aware of the schedule is by using a sports betting app or website that provides real-time updates on game results, line movements, and other relevant information. Using mobile apps can help bettors make more informed decisions, especially when it comes to in-game or live betting.

By keeping track of the NBA schedule, bettors can identify opportunities to place well-informed bets and avoid mistakes that can lead to losses. It is essential to stay updated on the latest news and developments in the league, as these can significantly impact the outcomes of games and, ultimately, the success of a sports bettor’s strategy.

BetMGM sign up

Get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

Keep track of injury reports

Keeping track of injury reports is crucial for basketball sports betting. Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance and affect the outcome of a game. For example, if the Los Angeles Lakers have an injury report that states that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both out for their next game, this could negatively affect the outcome and the point spread. A savvy sports bettor aware of this information could make a more informed decision on whether to bet on the Lakers or their opponent.

In addition, injury reports can provide valuable information about a player’s potential performance. For instance, if a player is recovering from an injury, they may not be able to play at their full potential, affecting their team’s chances of winning. This information can determine whether to bet for or against a team/player prop or adjust the point spread or totals.

Bet on underdogs

An upset can occur due to various factors, including form, injury, and schedule. NBA basketball bettors may find it profitable to consider betting on underdogs as it provides better payouts with lower risks.

For example, let’s take the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, where the Lakers are the favorites with a -5.0 point spread. Betting on the Nets as underdogs could be smart since they could win the game outright or lose by less than 5 points, resulting in a payout for those who wagered on the underdog.

Nonetheless, favorites can only sometimes be trusted to win or cover the spread, especially if a key player is injured or the team is in poor form. Thus, bettors should carefully evaluate each game and line based on their betting strategy instead of relying solely on who is favored or the underdog.

Place your bets early!

Placing your wagers early in NBA basketball sports betting can have three key benefits. First, you can use more favorable odds before the lines move against you. By placing your bet early, you can lock in a good point spread or total, giving you an advantage over other bettors who wait until closer to the game time.

Second, betting early allows you to take advantage of injury reports and other relevant information before the public and oddsmakers have adjusted the lines. Finding unadjusted odds is particularly valuable when assessing player props.

Third, early betting allows you to use strategies that exploit market inefficiencies. For example, you can identify undervalued underdogs or spot trends that the public has not yet recognized.

Basketball betting strategy. 21+ Please play responsibly.

The most popular basketball betting strategies explained

Track bets based on the NBA team

Tracking your bets based on NBA teams is a valuable strategy for sports bettors. By monitoring the performance of individual teams over the season, bettors can better understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses and use that information to make more informed betting decisions.

This allows bettors to identify favorable matchups and betting opportunities and to adjust their betting strategies accordingly. In addition, tracking NBA teams can help bettors identify trends and patterns in team performance, which can be used to predict future outcomes. For example, if a team performs well during road trips, a bettor may want to place a wager on that team when playing away from home. On the other hand, if a team is dealing with many injuries or load management issues, a bettor may want to only place bets on that team once their situation improves.

Tracking NBA teams allows sports bettors to gain an edge in the highly competitive world of sports betting. By paying close attention to each team’s performance and using that information to inform their betting decisions, bettors can increase their chances of success and profitability over the long term.

Hedge your bets

In the world of NBA basketball betting, hedging a bet is a popular strategy that many sports bettors use to reduce their risk and potentially guarantee a win. This tactic involves placing a second wager against the original bet when there is uncertainty about the outcome of the initial bet.

When a bettor believes they have a strong chance of winning their original bet, they may still decide to hedge to ensure they walk away with a profit. While the win won’t be as significant, the additional wager is insurance if the original bet is lost.

Hedging can be a promising approach in NBA betting, where various betting types are used, including point spread and moneyline wagers. With hedging, a bettor can minimize potential losses and guarantee a profit, regardless of the kind of bet they make. It’s worth remembering that when a bettor places a second hedge bet, they’ll need to pay additional vig fees to the sportsbooks. This can decrease the overall potential for profit and impact the bettor’s earnings.

Ultimately, the key to success in NBA betting is understanding and wisely using the different types of bets and strategies. While hedging can be a valuable tool for minimizing risk, it should be used with other NBA betting strategies to maximize the profit potential.

Don’t always bet on favorites

When it comes to NBA basketball betting, simply betting on the favorite team is only sometimes a successful strategy. Even if the favored team is strong, there are times when they may not cover the point spread or win outright. Therefore, a successful bettor must carefully analyze the betting odds, point spread, and other factors before placing a wager.

For example, let’s say the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Lakers are favored to win by 6.5 points. However, if the Lakers are missing their star player LeBron James due to injury, the odds may shift in favor of the Trail Blazers. In this scenario, betting on the underdog Trail Blazers could be profitable. If the Trail Blazers win outright or lose by 6 points or less, the bettor could receive a $190 payout on a $100 bet with +6.5 odds. However, if the Lakers win by 7 points or more, a bet on the Lakers would result in a winning wager.

Additionally, betting on the underdog can be advantageous during the playoffs, where upsets can happen frequently. The 2021 NBA playoffs saw the Phoenix Suns, a heavy underdog to make the NBA Finals, progress to the final stage of the NBA Playoffs, proving that betting against the favorite can sometimes yield great results. In conclusion, successful NBA betting requires careful consideration of various factors such as injuries, matchups, and team form, as well as a thorough analysis of betting odds and point spreads to make informed decisions that maximize potential payouts.

Pick games based on potential value

Picking games based on potential/expected value is crucial in NBA sports betting. For instance, suppose the Philadelphia 76ers are playing against the Toronto Raptors, and the odds for the 76ers to win are -150. In this case, you could place a wager on the 76ers if they have a greater chance of winning due to the injury of the Raptors’ star player, Pascal Siakam, and the 76ers’ home-court advantage.

Conducting research and analyzing data can help you make informed decisions and increase your chances of success. In NBA sports betting, expert tips and strategies are valuable resources for identifying potential value. These tips could include analyzing teams’ current form, load management, head-to-head records, and previous performances against similar opponents. Using these expert tips and strategies, you can gain an edge in NBA sports betting and increase your profits.

Discipline with your bankroll is another essential aspect of picking games based on potential/expected value. It is crucial to avoid betting more than you can afford to lose and chasing losses. Sticking to a betting strategy and being mindful of your bankroll will increase your chances of profiting in NBA sports betting.

Where can I find the best NBA betting odds?

DraftKings

DraftKings sign up

Bet $5 and win $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins!

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

Established in 2012, DraftKings Sportsbook has quickly become one of the top sports betting platforms in the industry. With licenses and regulations in several states, including Colorado, Illinois, and Indiana, DraftKings Sportsbook is available to users in some of the most active sports betting markets. The platform offers all the traditional betting options, unique prop bets, and live betting. DraftKings Sportsbook is known for its innovative features, including the “Cash Out” option, allowing users to settle their bets before the event’s conclusion. In addition to its sportsbook, DraftKings provides daily fantasy sports and a casino, making it a comprehensive online gaming experience. The platform’s user-friendly interface, competitive odds, and reliable payout system make it a popular and trustworthy option for sports bettors. With a commitment to responsible gaming, DraftKings Sportsbook continues to dominate the sports betting market.

BetRivers

BetRivers sign up

2nd chance bet up to $500

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

BetRivers Sportsbook is a reputable sports betting platform that was established in 2019. It is legal and regulated in several states, including Michigan, Arizona, and Iowa. BetRivers offers the most common betting options like moneylines, player props, and futures. The platform’s unique feature is the iRush Rewards loyalty program, which rewards users with points for every bet they place. Players can redeem points for bonus bets, free spins, and other rewards. BetRivers is also known for its fast and reliable payout system, with users reporting receiving their winnings within 48 hours. BetRivers has quickly become one of the top platforms for professional and casual sports bettors.

What basketball betting strategy is the most profitable?

Picking sports bets based on potential value is considered one of the best sports betting strategies in the context of NBA basketball, as it focuses on finding bets with a positive expected value. A positive expected value means the bet is more likely to win than the provided odds offered by the bookmaker, and over time, this approach can result in consistent profits. This strategy requires a deep understanding of the sport and the ability to analyze statistics, injury reports, and other relevant information to identify potential value bets.

The value-based approach is more objective and less emotional than other sports betting strategies, such as following hunches or betting on favorite teams. It systematically analyzes data and probabilities rather than relying on personal biases or superstitions. By focusing on potential value, bettors can make informed decisions and stay disciplined, increasing their chances of long-term success in NBA basketball betting. Additionally, the value-based approach can help bettors avoid common pitfalls, such as chasing losses or overvaluing popular teams or players.

Basketball betting strategies to avoid

Betting exclusively on your favorite team

It is advised not to bet exclusively on one’s favorite sports team if you’re betting on NBA, NCAA, or March Madness basketball, even for storied franchises and schools like the Boston Celtics or Duke University. Emotional decision-making can negatively impact profitability, and objective decisions based on data and analysis are essential. Betting on the Celtics can lead to overvaluing them and underestimating their opponents, potentially leading to losses. No team is unbeatable, and there will be times when the Celtics do not perform as expected. Making informed and profitable decisions is recommended to approach sports betting objectively and consider all relevant factors, including the Celtics’ performance, statistics, and injury reports.

Be wary of big favorites

Sports bettors should avoid solely betting on big moneyline favorites since the payout often carries a lower reward than the risk. The sportsbook establishes the odds in a way that discourages betting on favorites, and there is always a chance of an upset. Instead, it’s essential to consider relevant factors like opposing team strength, injuries, and performance to identify undervalued underdogs for a better potential return on investment.

NBA hedge betting explained

NBA hedge betting is a betting strategy where a bettor places a wager on one team, then places another bet on the opposing team or outcome to reduce their risk or secure a guaranteed profit. In NBA hedge betting, the second bet is placed after the first bet but before the game or event’s end. Sports bettors who want to minimize their potential losses or lock in profits while still having a chance to win their original bet commonly use this strategy.

For example, suppose a bettor placed a wager of $100 on the underdog team to win with odds of +250. If the underdog team wins, the bettor will profit $250. However, if the favorite team wins, the bettor would lose the $100 bet. The bettor could place a $50 bet on the favored team with a -4.5 point spread at -110 odds to hedge their bet. If the favorite team wins by five or more points, the bettor will profit $45, covering their $100 loss from the first bet. If the underdog team wins, the bettor would lose the second bet but still profit $150 from the first bet. If the favored team wins by four or fewer points, the bettor will win both bets, resulting in a total profit of $145.

Here’s another example in the context of the NBA Finals: Suppose a bettor placed a $500 bet on the Phoenix Suns to win the NBA championship at the beginning of the season at +400 odds. If the Suns make it to the finals, the bettor could hedge their bet by placing a $300 bet on the opposing team with +200 odds. If the Suns win the championship, the bettor will profit $2000 ($500 x 4), but if the opposing team wins, the bettor will profit $600 ($300 x 2) and lose $200 from the first bet, resulting in a total profit of $400.

NBA hedge betting can be a valuable strategy for sports bettors who want to reduce risk or lock in profits. It’s important to remember that hedge betting doesn’t guarantee a profit, and bettors should carefully consider their options and potential outcomes before deciding. With the right approach and understanding, NBA hedge betting can be a valuable tool in a sports bettor’s arsenal.

BetMGM sign up

Get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

Tracking NBA bet results by bet type

Successful basketball betting requires understanding the specific bet type and considering factors such as team performance, style, trends, injuries, line movement, and betting against the public or favorites to seek value and undervalued underdogs, which demands research, discipline, and knowledge.

Over/Under basketball betting

To make informed decisions when betting on over/under for NBA games, understanding each team’s pace and style of play, staying up-to-date on injury reports, and considering factors such as team defense and scoring potential are crucial. Understanding the on-court difference between teams is as important as understanding the lines.

Spread betting vs moneyline betting

Spread betting and moneyline betting are two popular types of sports betting in basketball. In spread betting, a bettor can wager on whether the Lakers would win by more or less than a certain number of points. For instance, consider a game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets. If the 76ers are -5.5 point favorites, a bettor can either bet on the 76ers to win by six or more points or bet on the Nets to lose by five or fewer points. In moneyline betting, a bettor can place a wager on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point differential. Understanding a team’s margins, odds, and margins of victory inform a bettor on whether to make a spread or moneyline wager.

Straight betting vs Parlay betting

A straight bet is a single wager on the outcome of a game or event, where a win depends on correctly predicting the winner – whether it be spread, moneyline, or total. On the other hand, a parlay bet combines two or more straight wagers, requiring correct predictions for each game or event. Parlay bets offer higher payouts but have a lower chance of success since all games or events must be predicted correctly, whereas in a straight bet, the risk and payout are lower, and the bet is based on a single prediction.

Full game bets vs halftime/quarter bets

Full game bets predict the outcome of the entire game, while halftime/quarter bets focus on a specific period. Full game bets offer a comprehensive analysis and a wider range of options, while halftime/quarter bets are more focused and provide a quicker payout. The choice between the two depends on the bettor’s preference for immediate payouts, focus on specific periods or desire for a more comprehensive game analysis.

BetRivers sign up

2nd chance bet up to $500

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

Live betting vs early basketball betting – pros and cons

The timing of your wager is also something to consider, with early betting offering better odds but less information and live betting providing up-to-date information but higher risks due to fast-changing odds.

Live betting

Live betting, also known as in-game betting, can provide numerous advantages in NBA sports betting. These include the opportunity to modify bets based on the game’s progression and individual performances, heightened enjoyment and involvement, and the potential for increased earnings due to fluctuating odds. On the other hand, live betting can also have drawbacks, such as the possibility of making unwise choices influenced by emotions or temporary shifts in performance, limited time for research and analysis, and susceptibility to addiction or compulsive behavior. It is essential to approach in-game betting cautiously and with self-discipline, always prioritizing responsible gambling habits.

Early betting

Early betting in NBA basketball entails making a bet on a game’s outcome well before its scheduled date. The primary benefit of early betting is the likelihood of more favorable odds, which may fluctuate as the match approaches due to variables such as team news, injuries, and other factors. Nonetheless, early betting poses the downside of increased uncertainty, given the possibility of unforeseen events affecting the game’s outcome. Hence, it is crucial to diligently weigh all factors and conduct thorough research before placing an early wager to minimize risks.

DraftKings sign up

Bet $5 and win $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins!

The above offers are available in the following states at present: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, and WY. 21+ Full T&Cs apply.

CLAIM HERE

Basketball betting strategies – our final thoughts

Basketball sports betting can be exciting and potentially profitable but risky and addictive. The key to successful NBA or NCAA betting is finding a system that increases your chances of making a profit and your enjoyment of the activity. To increase your chances of success, finding a style and approach that works best for you when betting on NBA or NCAA teams and NBA or NCAA players is crucial. Whether it’s bankroll management, value betting, handicap betting, in-play betting, following the experts, or researching the latest NBA news, each strategy has its strengths and weaknesses. So take the time to explore different methods and find the one that suits your style and bankroll the most. Responsible gambling is essential, so always bet within your means and seek help if you need it.

Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 21+. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler

A responsible gambler is someone who:

  • Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
  • Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
  • Never chase their losses
  • Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry, or depressed
  • National Council on Problem Gambling – https://www.ncpgambling.org/
  • Gamble Aware – www.begambleaware.org

For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 or go to ncpgambling.org/chat

What's your reaction?

Related Posts

1 of 667